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Is India ready to face the #COVID19 Pandemic? by Jeyseelan Jayaraj, @jeyaseelanj

India’s inhabitants is 1.3 billion as of 2020 based mostly on the inhabitants forecast (1). India is residence to 18% of the world inhabitants. As per the Mathematical Modeling of Infectious Illness Dynamics (EPI Mannequin), at the very least 40% of the individuals are more likely to be contaminated within the US. As per Prof. Lipsitch (2) a widely known Epidemiologist of Harvard faculty of public well being, “40% to 70% of individuals worldwide are more likely to be contaminated by COVID-19 within the coming 12 months”.

If we take very conservative figures, at the very least 10% of Indians (132 million) are more likely to get contaminated by COVID-19 in India. As per Guan et al., 2020 (3) at the very least 5% of the COVID-19 sufferers require ICU admission and a couple of.3% require mechanical air flow.

It’s estimated that there are about 70,000 ICU beds out there in India together with all sorts and throughout all hospitals and small time nursing houses in India that cater to five million sufferers requiring ICU admission yearly.

For the time being, it’s established that India have roughly about 30,000 (4) ventilators. Nevertheless experiences (5) recommend that not all of the ventilators are in working situation. If 2.3% of the 132 million COVID-19 sufferers want ventilators, practically 3 million (30 Lakhs) mechanical ventilators are required.

These numbers will overwhelm our capability and we’re completely unprepared to face this pandemic. It now actually is the time we strengthen our public well being methods greater than ever.

India spends about 1.28% of GDP on public well being and that is thought-about to be the bottom among the many international locations globally. The Authorities is planning to extend public well being spending to 2.5% of the GDP by 2025. Nevertheless this won’t be enough given the bigger inhabitants and public well being challenges confronted within the nation as we speak.

It is necessary that we combine our well being methods by way of Nationwide Well being Data Alternate each on the nationwide and state ranges. Well being Data Exchanges (HIE) are designed to realize interoperability throughout the healthcare ecosystem bringing care worth chain throughout major, secondary, tertiary care, payers, diagnostic laboratories, coverage makers and researchers on a identical platform to collaborate over constant and dependable affected person data.

The true time data sharing and entry to the sufferers’ previous historical past, allergic reactions, comorbidity situations and extra importantly figuring out sufferers with respiratory signs will assist the healthcare suppliers in fast analysis. The Covid-19 outbreak has introduced in a really attention-grabbing query in regards to the definition of well being knowledge whether or not it ought to transcend medical knowledge of sufferers and embody wider number of knowledge varieties and sufferers self reported knowledge akin to important indicators, journey historical past and many others.

Viruses like Covid-19 unfold by making copies of themselves. Every time they replicate, there are possibilities for mutation within the viral genome, making the newest copy barely completely different from the earlier one. The sharing of Covid-19 specimens with the researchers and well being professionals is essential to grasp the outbreak together with affected person danger components, journey historical past, and case experiences.

The Nationwide Genomics Bio-bank must be established with a purpose to retailer biopsy knowledge from residents. The entry to this database may be granted to analysis communities collaborating within the improvement of precision medicines based mostly on the affected person’s consent. The Council of Scientific and Industrial Analysis’s (CSIR) initiative akin to entire genome sequencing of 1000 Indians wants to maneuver past the pilot program and embody the bigger inhabitants knowledge throughout the nation.

The prevailing illness surveillance method leveraged by Built-in Illness Surveillance Programme (IDSP) (6) in India must be augmented with know-how based mostly actual time illness surveillance throughout the nation. IDSP knowledge is collected on epidemic inclined illnesses on weekly foundation (Monday–Sunday). The knowledge is collected on three specified reporting codecs, specifically “S” (suspected circumstances), “P” (presumptive circumstances) and “L” (laboratory confirmed circumstances) stuffed by Well being Employees, Clinicians and Laboratory workers respectively. The weekly knowledge provides data on the illness traits and seasonality of the illnesses.

Nevertheless this method is now not sustainable, given the bigger inhabitants within the nation and the character of the illness outbreaks like COVID-19. Enabling the hospitals to ship knowledge from the scientific encounters on to the Built-in Illness Surveillance Database is a crucial step in real-time monitoring and managing of illness outbreaks like COVID-19. Leveraging Healthcare Knowledge-warehouse strategies like multivariate statistical detection algorithms in IDSP can routinely classify syndrome classes and establish anomalous patterns within the syndrome counts in actual time.

The built-in well being methods in India will assist monitor epidemics or illness outbreaks, establish native hotspots for medical situations, infectious illnesses, malnutrition and many others. along with complete scientific care.

Word: That is my private opinion based mostly on the out there knowledge. The above put up must be learn as indicative of magnitude quite than precise figures.

Sources:

1.      https://www.worldometers.information/world-population/india-population/

2.      https://www.worldometers.information/coronavirus/coronavirus-expert-opinions/

3.      https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2002032

4.      https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/trade/healthcare/biotech/healthcare/aviation-ban-may-cause-shortage-of-ventilators-in-india/articleshow/74726896.cms?from=mdr

5.      https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/information/nationwide/52-of-400-ventilators-in-delhi-hospitals-non-functional-state-tells-hc/article26248905.ece

6. https://idsp.nic.in/

The article was first revealed on the writer’s LinkedIn pulse weblog, it’s revealed right here with the writer’s permission


Jeyaseelan Jeyaraj
Jeyaseelan Jeyaraj

Senior Director, Well being Sciences, Asia Pacific, Oracle Company | President HIMSS India


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